The agency FITCH, pessimistic for large retailers in 2009

Find below a dispatch from Reuters of 14 May that I have voluntarily decided to publish because it is self-explanatory and does not deserve additional comments:

For large retailers, 2009 is a lost year "(Fitch)

"The effects of changes, slower inflation and lower sales volumes should greatly affect the European brands of large retailers, most of which will stop their policy of expansion, said the rating agency Fitch on Thursday. "2009 is a lost year in terms of growth for all brands of distribution, which will focus on their core market and core business," said at a press conference Johnny Da Silva, Research Director at Fitch.

Last year, distribution was resisted by increasing food prices, which had helped offset declines in volumes. But in 2009, the drop in consumption linked to the crisis continued, but inflation also slowing. As a result, overall growth in sales the first six food groups in Europe (Carrefour, Tesco, Casino, Sainsbury, Metro and Ahold) is expected to melt at 4% this year against 8% in 2008, according to Fitch. The non-food brands should continue to suffer this year after suffering adverse trade-offs of consumers in 2008.

The turnover of these brands (Kingfisher, Marks and Spencer, Next, DSG) is expected to grow by less than 1% in 2009 against 1.5% in 2008. The impact of foreign exchange is also very important (down to the pound sterling for UK retailers, strong euro for distributors french or German). The effects of changes expected to cost between 1% and 3% of sales of European brands, predicted Mr. Da Silva. In response to these problems, food retailers and food should not reduce their investment of -15% and -45%, in particular investment for expansion. Carrefour has already announced earlier this year to focus on France, its traditional market, while the British put Tesco on Great Britain and Metro in Germany.

Among the ten brands in this study, Fitch indicated that only the Dutch Ahold and Sainsbury British have a margin of maneuver for a policy of expansion. The first because it has already restructured in the early 2000s and the second because he conducts a prudent financial policy, "said da Silva.

The decline in consumption also affects the full brunt of the food and spirits. Food companies Nestle, Unilever, Danone and Cadbury and should record increases in turnover of up to 2%, far from the goals of 5% to 9% set by these companies, said Fitch. The turnover of the companies in wines and spirits (Diageo, SAB Miller, Carlsberg, Pernod Ricard) should be between -2% and 2%, after growth in a range from 5% to 7% last year. The benefits should be either stable or decreased after an increase between 5% and 9% in 2008 and up 27% in 2007. People not only consume less than spirits, but they refer to the cheaper brands, noted Fitch. "